recent forex news

April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.

In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously).

All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.

Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well… And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.

It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, - down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a “down” direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).

The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later. Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.

Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: “in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side”. But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?

Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy… But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries’ economy statistics.

I wonder if I’ll ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes. The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?

Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into one’s head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way. Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. You’ll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.

This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:

Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE – by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 – by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close) There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.

The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.

Below are other similar examples of that same day.

Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above. Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book and in the Masterforex-V Trading Academy proceedings.

And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free “recommendations”, “advice”, “surveys” and “forecasts”, laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts? As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that “All the economists share these underlying principles”.

Comment No.1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these “underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark” have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice?

Comment No.2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?

FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity. Please, think over A. Elder words, that: “FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality”. 

Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his trader’s skill rating as per “Trading Chaos 2”): “On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the market’s basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others’ opinions. You needn’t read “Wall Street Journal”, watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels”.

Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous “Wall Street Journal”, to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go.

Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense.

The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the state’s economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news are superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability. This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:

FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis) Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).

Thus, having understood the FOREX ratesfactors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.

So, what are these factors?

FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of: Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).

Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.

Referring to the B. Williams (“Trading Chaos 2” Chapter 1 “The market is what you are thinking of it”):

Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something… among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer’/sellers’ power absolute equilibrium point.

The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by You or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.

With this scenario holding true – and it really does – we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance”.

Thomas Demark was more laconic in “Technical analysis - an emerging science”:

“Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there’s a price rally and if visa versa, there’s a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles”. Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.

In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the country’s economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country’s economy condition as below:

State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators – the faster the economic and the currency price growth);

Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country’s securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the country’s 30 leading companies.

The country’s interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country’s economy and hence into national currency strength. Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor. Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.

The country’s gold and currency reserve assets.

Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc. Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.) Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.) Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.) Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)

To be considered additionally are the country’s political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.

Conclusions:

Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally. Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline. To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.

In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates (“rumored trade”), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;

Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.

ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?

Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader? Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners. Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis. The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders’ funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, www.forexite.com reads: “Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency” http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html.

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Forex candlesticks are perhaps the single most valuable technical analysis tool that a trader can have in their toolbox. Candlestick charts have been a staple of the art and skill of technical analysis since the 18th century when Japanese rice traders invented them in an effort to spot repetitive patterns in price so as to predict future price movements. Similarly, the forex candlestick has been the backbone of technical analysis for forex currency traders since forex trading first became widely popular. Essentially, forex trading candlesticks display the overall thought process of all investors in the forex market for the given period of time the candlestick represents, thus they generate visual signals of investors' beliefs and it is these beliefs that are the engine that moves the forex market.

The greater appeal of forex candlestick charts over simple bar or line charts lies in the fact that they present the same data but with a dramatically dynamic visual interpretation. In essence, forex candle charts make it much easier and clearer to see the change in trader and investor sentiment, this makes forex candlestick charting the most efficient and profitable form of chart reading. The forex candlestick chart shows the raw price action that occurred as a result of market participants' reaction to economic variables.

Forex candlestick patterns give traders a definable and effective strategy to trade the market with. The primary reason for this is because forex candlestick charting gives a clear and easy to utilize depiction of the force of price action. The way that forex trading candlestick patterns do this is by having a "body" that shows the distance between the open and the close for the time period the bar represents. The body of a forex candlestick is typically either black or white or two other opposing colors. This easy to interpret visual effect gives you an instant view of who won the daily forex battle; the bulls or the bears. When using simple bar or line charts that do not contain this same contrast of price movement it is much more difficult to interpret forex price action.

Any forex trader looking for an effective yet simple to understand and implement trading strategy can make great use of forex candlesticks trading. By simply learning and then mastering a few core candlestick setups, traders can develop their own profitable forex trading system that will allow them to trade with clarity and conviction. A simple plain vanilla forex candlestick chart can be your primary technical analysis tool, trading in this simple manner will allow you to think clearly and calmly, and this will work to positively influence your trading. Many traders overlook the simplistic power that forex candlestick charts contain and proceed to add numerous indicators to their charts which only works to complicate their trading and confuse their mind. Do not become one of the masses of aspiring forex traders who fall prey to the myth of lagging indicators, cultivate your own trading confidence by learning to use forex candlestick patterns to trade the forex market.

Looks like the winds of change are blowing for Forex traders! Up until now, Forex traders have been taken for a ride. We have been given false promises; false hopes and these Internet marketers have played with our emotions and have looted enough money from us. It's about time that we said no to scammers and filthy marketers that promise us absurd 400% and more returns, and never fetch any money at all, or worse still, rip a big hole in our pockets.

A guy named Jim Collins is about to smash the Forex scam. He says that Forex traders need to be rational. They fall prey to the scammers because of their greed. Another thing he points out is that most banks use indicators to profit from Forex traders and these banks are happy with an average ROI of about 20% to 30%.

While his survey shows that:

Apparently, they are the worst hit.

Of the 10% traders that use indicators, majority of them are not able to interpret them correctly. The balance 1 or 2% that do use it in correctly, are able to pump up reasonable amounts from the Forex. It is not easy to interpret the indicators at all times. If you want a steady stream of profits from Forex, then you need to have a surefire strategy and powerful unique indicators, and that's what Forex Geyser is all about.

Forex Geyser is to be launched within the next 24 hours, and I will get back to you with more info on this. Watch out, because this guy looks promising enough, and different from the crowd! Jim doesn't make tall claims. He says that his system uses unique indicators, and one can easily earn ROI in the range of 70 to 150%

Forex Geyser is…

Forex Geyser works on the 4 hour timeframe. It will seed out unnecessary noise and false alarms occurring in the shorter time frames. Also, one can CASH in on the intra day trading opportunities, which are generally overlooked by banks and big institutions. So, if you want to make decent, realistic gains at Forex, then, come on, check this link now:

Visit Forex Geyser Official Website

Forex Geyser is going to be a trend breaker. While most of the Forex systems tell you white lies about their trading systems, EAs and guides, Jim stands tall with his simplicity and honesty. Let's see what Forex Geyser can do for you…

If you want instant CASH, without holding trades unnecessarily and blocking your money with ridiculous stop losses, then come on, get Forex Geyser. Forex Geyser goes live later. So, be sure to be there early to grab your copy. Jim doesn't believe in diluting the indicators. So, this will be sold under a strict "FIRST COME FIRST SERVED" basis.

Your time starts now! I have said whatever I have to, you have the proof and you have heard everything I have said up until now. Now it's your task to click on the link below and grab Forex Geyser while it's available before its too late

Foreign Exchange is commonly known as Forex and it involves the trading of major currencies like the United States Dollar, the Euro, the Japanese Yen and the British pound. The daily turnover in the forex market is close to 4 trillion US dollars and is the main and most liquid financial market in the world. Main participants in the forex markets are the central banks, financial institution, business corporations, and retail traders. 

The aim of retail traders and financial institutions is to make profits whereas business corporations use forex trading to accommodate their business needs across various countries. Very often, forex trading has been referred as a market that has the most resemblance to a market with perfect competition. This is primarily because the size of the forex market is so big that it is not possible for the participants to manipulate it easily. There are few reasons which make it attractive to get involved in forex trading. These include a market that is open for 24 hours a day and five days a week, the low transaction costs, and a high leverage coupled with high liquidity can allow you to take advantage and make profit both from rising and falling prices.

The Forex markets have financial instruments similar to the stock markets. However, there are some countries that do not allow the trading of currency derivatives. The value of a nation's currency is determined by a large number of factors. In addition to the directly associated economic condition of the nation, political conditions of the country and market psychology also severely influence the forex market. 

The United States Dollar is the most widely traded currency followed by the Euro and the Yen. The most widely traded product in the spot market is the currency trading between the Euro and the United States Dollar.  The sophistication of the forex market has been steadily increasing and even involves algorithmic trading. Recent estimates suggest that mathematical algorithms are used in as much as 25% of the trading volumes.

It is quite easy to learn the basics of forex trading specially with lot of freely available forex tutorials and forex videos over popular internet sites. One can also sharpen their skills by practicing forex trades in a simulated environment provided by commercial software. In fact, there are also periodic webinars given mostly by forex brokers which can help you to enhance your forex knowledge. Alternatively, one can enroll in a forex trading course taught by professional forex brokers. 

There are also internet forums which can be a good platform to discuss forex trading issues with likeminded people.  A large number of books written by professionals are also available at reasonable prices. Before venturing into real time forex market, it is a good idea to closely monitor and analyze the forex market over a period of time. With the high amount of leverage that is available in forex trading, with little effort and patience, one can make considerable money from trading in the forex market. Trading in The Now led by Andy Russell is a New Zealand based company which provides extensive training on how to trade currency safely and profitably.