recent forex news

Very few spot forex traders conduct any form of parallel and inverse analysis of the major currency pairs an exotic currency pairs to determine the best way to trade the forex market on a day-to-day basis.  Forex traders do this in spite of the fact that it would be nearly impossible to trade the forex successfully not knowing where the overall strength and weakness was in the spot forex across multiple pairs or the entire forex market.

Lets look at some examples. Many forex traders like to trade the GBP/USD and they spend countless hours losing sleep waiting to trade this currency pair even when no trends or parallel/inverse currency pair confirmation is available. Losses occur and lifestyles change.  Forex traders could increase their odds of success dramatically by setting up some forex trade entry rules and examples like the ones shown below.

Example 1 - Only buy the GBP/USD if the GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY are strengthening as well. This would be parallel confirmation that the GBP strengthening across the board. A simple but effective rule.  A forex trader could enhance the rules further by examining the EUR/GBP for weakness. This is inverse currency pair entry confirmation.

Example 2 - Only buy the GBP/USD if the EUR/USD is strengthening and the USD/CHF is weakening. This would be confirming the trade entry with two other currency pairs and verification with across the board weakness in the USD. In either situation you have confirmed the forex trade entry with at least two other currency pairs. Both of these entry management rules would include a stop order.

But this is not what forex traders do. They want to trade the GBP/USD so badly that they “manufacture” a trade, or they want to use “ forex technical indicators” that all conflict with each other, or trade the forex news. This is a mistake and is equivalent to betting or gambling and driven by greed. There is no logic to support the trade entry. This is not necessary because the forex works in a logical way.

Lets look at some other forex trade entry verification examples. Lets say a forex trader prefers to trade the GBP/JPY, you could set up rules for entry as follows: Only buy the GBP/JPY if the GBP is strong across the board based on parallel and inverse pairs, or only enter the GBP/JPY if the GBP/USD and USD/JPY are both strengthening somewhat or alot. In the second scenario the GBP/JPY will slingshot upward at a very fast pace due to the GBP strength combined with JPY weakness.

Or another scenario is for a forex trader only to buy the GBP/JPY if the EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and AUD/JPY are all strengthening as well, in this case the USD is not in the picture because of across the board weakness in the JPY. Either way you have confirmed the spot forex trade entry with other currency pairs in the same parallel group..

Another example would be to buy the USD/CAD only if the EUR/CAD and AUD/CAD are also rising. Similar rules can be applied to any major pair or exotic currency pair and easily monitored upon entry. In the case of the three CAD pairs, if you also do a careful analysis of forex support and resistance, and you can trade the currency pair with the most pip potential rather than just trading the USD/CAD.

But this is not what traders do, they get stuck trading the same pairs like the EUR/USD repeatedly and wind up justifying a trade when a trade is not there. These forex trade entries are not based on logic they are based on emotional needs. This leads to losses. The spot forex works in a very logical process and you must let the logic work for you. Stop looking at forex technical indicators and start looking at other pairs in the same parallel and inverse groups to support your entries, these are the best indicators available.

Across the board strength and weakness in the 8 major parallel and inverse groups of currency pairs occurs weekly in the forex.  But if you search the internet far and wide you will see that parallel and inverse analysis of the spot forex is rarely and in fact never discussed by forex traders, forex analysts, and forex trade planning services charging hefty monthly fees. People are too busy looking at  forex technical indicators and absolutely no discussion of the market forces governing the spot forex ever occurs. This has to stop or the forex industry and traders will suffer.

It is very rare if nearly non-existent for one forex currency pair to move strong without other currency pairs to confirm the move. This is true for any major or exotic currency pair. If you are “stuck” trading the same currency pairs while the other pairs and exotic pairs are making strong moves its time to look at all of the currency pairs every night for your forex market analysis then pick the best opportunities to trade based on parallel and inverse analysis.

In order to trade the spot forex daily and weekly, you must analyze 15-20 pairs every day to determine the current market forces within each parallel or inverse group of pairs. This forex analysis will lead to less forex trade entries, but more logical forex trade entries, and better methods of confirmation of forex trade entries when the movement starts. Parallel and inverse analysis is the logic behind the spot forex.

April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.

In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously).

All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.

Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well… And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.

It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, - down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a “down” direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).

The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later. Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.

Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: “in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side”. But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?

Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy… But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries’ economy statistics.

I wonder if I’ll ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes. The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?

Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into one’s head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way. Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. You’ll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.

This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:

Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE – by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 – by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close) There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.

The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.

Below are other similar examples of that same day.

Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above. Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book and in the Masterforex-V Trading Academy proceedings.